Not a Big Truck

Clinton nailed it tonight.  Positioned himself as passing the torch, as the father figure who has faced what Obama now faces and who will help guide him through it.  The speech benefits him but also benefits Obama and the Democrats.  It had some necessary political shots, but intelligently spelled out what is at stake and why Obama must be elected and is ready to lead.

The money line: “People around the world have always been more impressed by the power of our example than by the example of our power.”

Bill brought it.

P.S.  John Kerry is speaking now and is hammering McCain.  Built the theme of how Candidate McCain hates the maverick, Senator McCain.  It was well-done and even joked about the “was for it before I was against it” thing.  Also made the important point that McCain was against Rovian tactics when they were used against him in 2000, but now that he is the candidate he is more than comfortable to use Rovian attacks on Obama.

Putting forward one hell of a personal, biographical defense of Obama, fighting against the idea that Obama is an elitist. He is going through the family history, the abandonment by his father, and Obama’s desire to give back to his community. Loving this speech too.

He has a chance to bring the house down tonight.  He had some bumpy moments during the campaign and word has it he is still angry with the Obama campaign.  He could give a bland speech talking about unity and defending his record.

Or he could really go for it, skewer McCain, prop up the party, praise Obama, and use his natural political talents to express the empathy that Senator Obama struggles to demonstrate.  Pointing out how Obama’s policies will directly address the pain that people are feeling could go a long way to firing up the base and bringing home working-class Democrats. Bill Clinton, especially in light of Hillary’s speech last night, could use his speech as a way to change the narrative.  This primary was seen as Obama overcoming the Clinton dynasty.  With solid support, with the Clintons positioning themselves as Obama’s strongest backers, they could transform from the defeated to those who pass the torch.  Not to mention, such strong support would position the Clintons well for their future in Democratic politics.

We will see how it goes.

Here are a couple of Bill moments, expressing his empathy in the debate and showing some fire dealing with a heckler in the other.

Clinton supporters have every right to try to sink the Obama candidacy.  I am not convinced that they are and am still somewhat of the opinion that this is mostly a media creation.

But, as an Obama supporter, I feel confident in saying that many Obama supporters will not forgive any perceived sabotage. If we believe that the Clintons or their supporters were responsible for an Obama defeat, I wonder how inclined we will be in 2012 to support a Clinton candidacy, whether that be in the primary or in the general election.

Even if she doesn’t run for the presidency and it is out of spite that the Clintons and their supporters sink the Obama candidacy, personally, I wonder how willing I would be to even support Hillary in her efforts to reclaim her current senate seat in 2012.  I guess I have it in me to be just as immature and spiteful as the Clintonites.

I have a lot of respect for the Clintons.  They did a lot of good for the Democratic Party and for the country.  But, that does not give them the right to allow injuries to their egos to betray their party and that party’s ideals. I hope that Hillary and Bill give extremely supportive speeches this week and make it clear that if one supports them and their ideals, then one must support Obama if one wishes to see those ideals come to fruition.

For all the talk of the groundbreaking nature, particularly on the Democratic side, of this year’s presidential election, the parallels between the two major candidates and our two most recent presidents are striking.

Let’s look briefly at Bill Clinton.  Coming from a humble upbringing, he is a brilliant intellect who achieved great academic success (Georgetown, Rhodes Scholar at Oxford, Yale Law).  His extraordinary ambition spurred him to take a lifelong calculated path towards the presidency, starting perhaps when he met JFK as a high schooler at Boys Nation.  His gift for public speaking and getting people to feel a connection to him is legendary.

And Clinton showed himself to be willing to compromise almost anything for the furtherance of his political career, especially when the White House was at stake.  Think of his return to Arkansas in the ‘92 campaign to oversee the execution of the mentally disabled convicted murderer Ricky Ray Rector.  Then there’s his famous strategy of “triangulation” especially after the Democrats’ debacle in the ‘94 midterm elections.  Clinton gutted the welfare system and declared that “the era of big government is over” on the way to solidifying the legacy of Ronald Reagan.

Barack Obama?  Also a modest upbringing, raised by a single mom and grandparents.  Also a stellar academic career (Columbia, Harvard Law, president of the Harvard Law Review, teaching post at Chicago).  Like Clinton, a public speaker of almost unrivaled caliber — though he probably lacks Clinton’s capacity for projecting empathy.  And by most accounts, Obama also has pursued a carefully orchestrated path towards the presidency.  Even aside from his notorious elementary school essay about wanting to be president, which HRC attempted to make an issue in her campaign, he has clearly had his eye on the upper echelons of American politics for ages.  Fifteen years ago, he told his brother-in-law Craig Robinson that he was interested in running for U.S. Senate and maybe for president.  A recent article in the NYT pointed out the extent to which Obama was careful to hide his true political feelings while teaching at Chicago Law and how he did not leave any kind of potentially incriminating paper trail — he has no academic articles to his name.

Most importantly, I think it is likely that Obama will turn out to be just as politically ruthless and willing to sacrifice anything for political success as Clinton was.  Don’t get me wrong, I like the guy and will vote for him, but I think he has shown hints of this tendency already.  Look at the ridiculous tacking to the right he did as soon as he had the nomination sewn up.  I mean, supporting the death penalty for rapists of children?  That’s a terrible crime for sure, but what is this, the 19th century?  So much for Obama being a true liberal lion.  Let’s be honest, we really don’t know what the guy’s principles are.  He takes a lot of credit for opposing the Iraq war from the start, but it is also true that back in 2002 he was in a congressional primary race against Bobby Rush in a very liberal district.  Sure, he is a smart guy and articulated his position in a wise and sophisticated way in his speech back then — but he had nothing to lose and much to gain by taking that position in the first place.  Obama’s national career has been made, above all else, by one man: George W. Bush.  Obama has sold himself very effectively as breaking from the Bush era in almost every respect.

Now for part two: a comparison of George W. Bush and John McCain.

Let’s make this one a faster run-through.  GWB: scion of privilege with weak academic credentials who got into a top-notch school (Yale) only because of family connections.  Same story for McCain, who was able to attend the Naval Academy because his father and grandfather were admirals.  McCain, like Bush, was a jock and prankster type and he graduated almost at the bottom of his class at Annapolis.  Neither man is talented as a public speaker.  For both men, one of their biggest selling points is their congeniality: to many Americans they seem like the kind of guys you’d like to have a beer with.  I’d also argue that both men tend to get a pass on their mistakes and weak points because of their supposed likability, but perhaps that is only my liberal sensibility showing through.

Another key point of similarity can be seen in the kind of campaign McCain is running this year compared to the Bush 2000 campaign.  McCain is running in large part on his national reputation, deserved or not, of being a maverick and a moderate on many issues.  Bush in 2000 — but not 2004 — did the same thing.  He ran on his credentials as a moderate governor of Texas who consistently reached across the aisle to work with Democrats in the legislature.  What happened when Bush got to the White House was, of course, that that “compassionate conservative” approach to governing was tossed out the window.  Republicans since then have adopted a fifty-percent-plus-one approach to campaigning and governing — an approach aided in large part by fears stoked in the wake of 9/11.  I expect McCain to have a similar approach to governing if he gets to the White House.  He has tacked to the right since losing to GWB in the GOP primary in 2000; he has voted for Bush’s agenda 95% of the time and he knows he needs the GOP base to get into office and get things done.

This has been a downer of a post for me to write, because I would like to have reached different conclusions.  I think our country right now needs someone different not only from Bush, about whom you can make a convincing argument that he is the worst president ever, but from Clinton, who my liberal dad likes to say is the best conservative president we ever had.  I am afraid that whether the next president is McCain or Obama, we may not ultimately get as much change as we need.

With the Clinton story dominating the news today, at least the MSM, my first reaction was “oh shit, here we go again.”  A divided party would certainly mean defeat for Obama.

But, then, I felt glad that the Clintons were back in this fight.  McCain has made himself relevant again over the last couple weeks.  Prior to that time (during the Dem primary and early general election) McCain was a non-factor.  His campaign has been effective over the last few weeks reminding the nation that he is running for president too. With this storyline, McCain gets pushed out of the headline stories and Obama, once again, looks like the young hero again who is still fighting to vanquish the evil Clintons.  This isn’t fair to the Clintons necessarily, but it is how the media portrays it.

This story puts Obama back in the headline in a positive light–nothing about the negative ads, about flip flops, about being elitist, or about being too fit–and buries McCain further down the page. The potential and obvious downside, however, is that with the war with the Clintons flaring up again the party could be divided and Obama could lose a lot of supporters that vehemently supported Hillary Clinton–namely women and white working class voters.

This is a reasonable concern, but shouldn’t worry us Obama supporters too much.  Why? Well, I think that at this point most of HRC’s supporters have come to support Obama.  Now, the diehard Clinton folks were never going to support Obama or will at least be vocal to the very end. But the vast majority of those who voted for HRC have recognized that Obama is going to be the nominee and represents their best interests relative to McCain. Obama is leading McCain with women voters in the polls and is remaining unusually close to McCain among white males in the polls.

Hillary Clinton and Bill Clinton–and their closest supporters who have now lost their meal-ticket–are likely upset and will resist Obama.  But almost all of those that voted for Hillary are going to support the nominee.  Given that, it is good news and appealing to independents and moderate Republicans to see Obama “battling” the Clintons again. Meanwhile, everyone can forget about McCain.