Not a Big Truck

So the hype in the media lately is that Obama has fallen behind in the polls and that McCain is the clear front runner. In terms of nationwide, popular vote opinion polls, this seems to be the case. However, if there’s one thing we learned in the primary season (see, for example, Nevada and Texas), it’s that the Obama campaign knows that winning involves winning by the rules, and the rules don’t declare the popular vote winner the election winner. A look at the map over at Real Clear Politics shows that, assuming state-by-state polls can accurately predict winners (and many are within margins of error), Obama would win the election if it were held today (even without Virginia which is currently listed as a “tie”).

The Obama campaign knows that it’s the electoral votes that will win the election, and given their track record I would assume they also know how many it takes to win: 269.  Since democrats control state delegations in the house 26-21 (with 3 split) Obama would only need to 269 electoral votes to win. 

There are a couple plausible 269-269 situations (and I’d bet money the Obama campaign knows what they are):

- Obama wins Kerry’s states, plus Iowa, New Mexico and Nevada

- Obama wins Kerry’s states, minus New Hampshire, plus Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico OR Nevada

- Less plausibly, Obama wins Kerry’s states, minus MIchegan, plus Iowa, Virginia, Colorado and New Mexico OR Nevada

The more intersting 269-269 situation would come in the Senate, where Joe Lieberman would get to select the Vice President.